So, what's the best financial indicator anyway?

Both NPV and IRR are universally accepted as the best financial indicators for evaluating a new business project, but there's still debate about which one is best

The answer is pretty straightforward: the NPV

However, each indicator supplies important information to evaluators so they both together will provide a better view of the financial behavior of the project.

The NPV measures the value the project creates, "in addition" to the Rate of Return required. It provides an indication, in monetary terms, of the wealth created by the project on the most likely scenario. Before going deeper into the definition it would be good to step back for a second and explain a common misunderstanding regarding the return the project provides, as it is not received on the total investment but rather on the investment that remains unrecovered every period.

For example, let's say an investor has provided 10 MM US$ as initial investment for a project expecting to earn a Rate of Return of 10%, and the project provided him a 2MM US$ free cash flow the first year. In this case, 10 % of the initial investment (1 MMUS$) will cover the expected Rate of Return, and the additional 1 MM US$ would be equivalent to the devolution of capital (just like the amortization of a loan principal). So, in the second year the investment remaining will be 9 MM US$ and the cash flow expected 0.9 MM US$.

Since the investor owns the cash flow during the entire project life, all of this "surplus cash" generated every year is automatically "credited" to the project equity. So, both NPV and IRR give you the return on the "remaining" (internal) investment just like a bank loan does, so in this way the project can be compared with any other investment instruments.

The NPV measures the excess (or shortfall) of cash flows, unlike the IRR that measures the max return that an investor can expect from the project. Thus, while the project NPV can be evaluated for different return rates, there’s only one single IRR associated to each project.

That said, it is evident that the NPV provides the same information as the IRR (whether or not to invest), plus it also gives you supplementary information regarding the additional value created by the project, a critical indicator when comparing mutually exclusive investment alternatives.

However, despite a strong technical preference for NPV and the limitations of the IRR, different surveys indicate that industry practitioners and executives prefer IRR over NPV. It seems that many evaluators still find it intuitively easier to evaluate investments in terms of percentage Rates of Return rather than dollars.

Chapter 16 provides an comprehensive guide to business project cash flows, covering all the topics related to Financial Indicators, Depreciation, Taxes, Working Capital and Discount Rate. You can read the first two chapters of the book here.

"The content of this book was born right in the trenches. It is based on our own experience promoting industrial projects, as well as an extensive research on the best practices of the most recognized consulting firms and personalities in the industry such as McKinsey, Harvard Business School, MIT Sloan, Accenture, Boston Consulting Group, Black and Veatch and others."

Who should read this book

Wherever there is a human need, there will be a business opportunity

Areas of application

Although each investment project is unique and must be treated in a particular manner, the methodologies to take them through from a simple idea to a reliable operational mode can be adapted to face any situation:

  • Installation of a new production facility.
  • Development of a new product
  • Opening new markets for current products.
  • Outsourcing or Insourcing business processes.
  • Expansion of the actual production capacity.
  • Replacement of Equipment and/or Machinery.
  • Development of a new software or IT platform.
  • Process automation or "Smartization".

Here some examples...

Technology Selection

A fuel retail company evaluates the creation of a new Natural Gas (NG) Distribution company that will focus on industrial customers. These customers are currently burning propane for their process

Based on data collected "onsite" about fuel consumption, energy efficiency and performance, project promoters will be able to estimate the potential net savings the plant will have by switching to NG. With information about estimated consumption, they can evaluate whether using Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) instead of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), as LNG might have a shorter payback period for some types of processes. This evaluation will determine how much value will be available to repay equipment and instrumentation required for the installation.
Market Research

Due to the rapid increase of the global demand, an acai berry producer is considering to eliminate his current plantations of other berries and Noni to increase the production of the popular fruit

The producer will have to analyze the international behavior of the demand and the geographic distribution of the current providers. He also has to benchmark his product quality to the offer of potential competitors on those markets so he can get a sense of investment required and estimated prices. Based on this information, he should be able to measure on what countries his potential returns can be higher, and compare those returns against his current benefits from berries and Noni. If he decides to go ahead with the project, he will then need to create an export strategy in according to the characteristics of his product and resources. A well-designed market research must provide the support for the investment decision and align the company resources with the product strategy.
Project Site Location

An electronic equipment manufacturer, is trying to identify the best location for a new plant to assemble MP3 players and smart phones

The plant location might be affected by the segmentation or "granularity" of the project suppliers. For example, if most of the parts and pieces come from one single supplier, or are imported, the manufacturer should consider to installing the plant closer to the largest supplier or an international port facility. On the other hand, the level of automation and size of the project might suggest to install the plant closer to the labor markets or towards the consumer market. In general, there are more than 20 factors that must be assessed when evaluating facilities location.
New Product Development

The Product Development Team of a digital imaging company is working on the development of a newer version of their digital camcorder

The development team can create value by eliminating overrated, expensive features and identifying others that improve the value perceived by the target customers. These decisions must be based on specific information about the market and customers behavior. The tools and techniques included in the book will help developers identify relevant features to improve user experience and other dispensable features that can be immediately gotten rid of.

Going beyond the existing demand

The owner of a dairy factory is planning to close one production line due to the continuous demand reduction

Rather than reducing the production, the plant manager should try to increase the product demand by identifying potential, non-conventional customers for their products, and by opening other markets and low-cost marketing channels. The book explains different tools to convert non-customers into frequent buyers and to identify new unconventional markets.



About this Book
Project Developers 2.0 is a unified effort to bring our readers a comprehensive compendium of powerful tools to create, evaluate and communicate business projects.

The content of this book is based on our own experience on project development, as well as an extensive research on the best practices of the most recognized consulting firms and personalities in the industry. 

Read first two chapters


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